With the festive season now just around the corner, retailers across the country are preparing themselves for their busiest months of the year – but with jobseeker interest lagging behind vacancies, it looks like retailers are in for a not-so-merry Christmas.
In Australia, hiring for holiday jobs typically begins in August, ramping up throughout September and peaking in October, with businesses finalising recruitment and schedules well before the Christmas holidays.
On Indeed, job postings for Christmas opportunities this year have outpaced last year – a sign that retailers are optimistic leading into their busiest time of year. However, recruitment this year will be challenging with the Australian labour market incredibly tight and Christmas jobs receiving lower than normal interest from jobseekers.
Overall, the retail sector has enjoyed a successful year. Spending has increased by 9.1 per cent since December last year, with spending at department stores and cafés & restaurants up 26 per cent and 24 per cent respectively. Even though consumer confidence has plunged in recent months owing to rising interest rates, retailers clearly have reason to be optimistic.
Christmas recruitment ramped up throughout August and September
In September this year, job postings featuring Christmas keywords in their title accounted for 2.3 per cent of all postings on Indeed, compared to 1.8 per cent of postings in the same month last year, suggesting a stronger demand for Christmas casual workers. Australian employers also started advertising earlier than usual, with postings ramping up faster throughout August than in previous years.
The fact that the Christmas jobs share is tracking ahead of last year’s pace is particularly impressive when you consider that the overall number of postings is 46 per cent larger than it was at the same time last year. This means that Christmas jobs this year account for a larger share of a much bigger pie.
Nevertheless, the gap between this year and last year has closed considerably throughout September, suggesting that the Christmas postings share could peak lower, as a share of total postings, than last year. In the past two years, Christmas recruitment has peaked in the first half of October before gradually declining in the lead-up to Christmas. Jobseekers who apply early can lock in a Christmas gig months in advance.
Search activity has fallen short of last year
In recent years, Christmas job searches have typically peaked a little later than job postings. Last year, Christmas searches peaked towards the end of November, compared with the early October peak for job postings. So far, Christmas job searches are tracking behind the past few years. In September, around 0.8 per cent of searches on Indeed were for Christmas jobs, down from 0.9 per cent over the same period last year. In other words, jobseeker interest is looking lower this festive season than last.
The dynamics in the Christmas jobs market reflect the overall labour market. We have a combination of increased demand for talent, with no matching increase in jobseeker interest. For jobseekers, this suggests there’ll be plenty of Christmas jobs to go around this season, while for retailers, it presents the risk of limited staff at one of the busiest times of the year.
Who’s hiring?
Unsurprisingly, around 82 per cent of Christmas roles in August and September were in the retail sector. Nevertheless, the retail frenzy can spill over into other parts of the economy. A day-long shopping spree isn’t possible without refreshments, creating food service roles, while holiday travel creates opportunities in hospitality. And all those toys and clothes don’t magically appear on shelves. Instead, they must be transported from warehouses, creating jobs in transport and logistics.
Among top Christmas employers, major clothing brands and jewellers rank highly. The biggest Christmas employers tend to be similar from year-to-year.
Christmas hiring this year reflects the broader labour market dynamics that we’ve observed throughout 2022. There is no shortage of opportunities across the country, concentrated in the retail sector, but there may be a shortage of available candidates. Christmas job postings have been strong throughout August and September but job searches for these types of roles have lagged behind earlier years. That is concerning for Australian retailers as they gear up for their busiest time of year.
Callam Pickering is a Senior Economist at the Indeed Hiring Lab with a focus on Australia. Previously he was an economist at the Reserve Bank of Australia focusing on household spending and house prices. He also worked as the economic editor at online publications the Business Spectator and Eureka Report where he covered economic issues relating to Australia. Callam earned a Bachelor of Economics and Accounting from Monash University.